Another HSX recruitment drive

[Efexeye]

You people are into movies, right? Well, go to hsx.com (http://www.hsx.com) and sign up to be a day trader with Movie Stocks and Star Bonds! I need more people in my league- right now, it's just me, Denyse, Fangirl and ......Tom Harrington, I think- I can't remember, because the name is different here than it is there. Sorry if I got the name wrong. Post your portfolio names here- I'll add them to my league.

Just for starters, anybody else have Johnson Family Vacation? I made 250 grand off of it, as I bought it at a severely undervalued 24 dollars. Seems that those "ethnic" movies are always WAY underpriced. I made half a mil off of "You Got Served", simply by listening to my students buzz about it.

My trader name over there is Efexeye. Let's get a league going! Hell, I'll even supply a prize, if anyone wants to get on board!

[Threadkiller]

Ahem. That'd be me that currently has a commanding lead (thanks in large part to the fact that I've been playing forever). Thanks for confusing me with Tom though. That's some high class company. /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

[Efexeye]

Sorry, sorry- I just couldn't remember who the hell that person was...I'm having a rough season- lost over a million dollars already in the past couple months. THE HOBBIT was a big stinker- I bought it for 90, it went up to 106, then bottomed out at like 60- it's still pretty low, around 70 I think, but I had to cut my losses. I don't like holding long, anyway, except for the Simpsons. I bought that bitch at 9 bucks, and when the movie finally hits, it's going over 250, I just know it.

[Threadkiller]

If it's announced that a movie I have will be a wide release I hold it long. Jersey Girl ended up costing me though. Right now my big earners are War of the Worlds and Green Hornet. I also keep an eye out for direct-to-video and direct-to-cable announcements and short them.

Basically I use HSX as an excuse to keep up on movie news and buzz. On a side note, I can't stand the HSX message boards. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[Efexeye]

I shorted Jersey Girl- had to play with my head, and not my heart.

Oh, and I think the forums there suck ass, too.

[karmattack]

Even after hearing you talk about it a few times, I still have yet to check it out. I will do that and get back to you.

Edit: I'm in. Where do I sign?

[FanGirl]

If you would like some recommendations of pojects in development that are worth buying cheap now, i have a few.

WTOUT - White Out
RRAM - Rendezvous with Rama
Gambit - Gambit
AFTLIF - Afterlife

[Efexeye]

I dunno FG, those are pretty obscure- might be tough to make money on those. The best way to make money fast is to play the movies coming out for the weekend- buy them if you think they'll make money, and short them if you think they won't.

What you're buying is stock in the idea that the movie will make as much money as it is priced at. The price will "correct" to 2.9 times the opening weekend's box office gross the Monday after the movie is released. Personally, I think Kill Bill 2 is a good call to short this weekend- it just has too much competition. It would have to make about 25 mil this weekend alone to adjust to the price the market has it at.

Karma, what is your trading name so I can add you to My League?

EDIT: Kill Bill is at 75 bucks right now, and it is opening on 3000 screens. That means to adjust to its market value, it will have to make about 8300 dollars per screen. Assuming that the theater has 18 showings of the film (6 a day- this is kind of high number, but, for argument's sake we'll say that many), that means that it has to make about 461 dollars per showing. At an average ticket price of 8 bucks, this means that 57 people (on average) will have to be at EVERY show. I mean EVERY show- even 9 AM on Sunday morning. Plus, it's got a lot of competition- 5 new movies opened last weekend, the Punisher comes out this weekend, the Passion is still out.....and the first movie only grossed like 72-73 million. Of course, I want it to do well, I just don't think that it will.

[karmattack]

"karmattack" is in the hizzy, bizzy!

I'd say Rendezvouz With Rama is a good long term stock though. I don't know about the other movies. That movie is going to be a sci-fi orgasm if/when it comes out.

[FanGirl]

I'm all about long term stocks. They are the ones that give me the constant income. I bought Avator before anyone was attached for $10 and I have made ungodly money on it since Leonardo was added.

I don't play it daily so that works better for me.

[jjcourtright]

I spend way too much time on the internet as it is, I really can't handle another monkey on my back.

[Efexeye]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
I'm all about long term stocks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not me- I can't stand a little trickle of money. I like to boom or bust every single weekend- I never buy less than 25,000 shares of anything. Well, I might buy 1 share of something just to track what its doing.

[TomHarrington]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
Thanks for confusing me with Tom though. That's some high class company.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for confusing me with someone possessing class.

[ozchick]

Hey Efexeye

I have absolutely no idea how to play but if you'd be kind enough to give me some pointers, I'd give it a go (If only to waste even more time at my job!) /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[ILovePapaSmurf]

<font color="purple">Ok, I'm in. My sn is ILovePapaSmurf...

And Fan, don't worry I will actually pay attention to this more than fantasy hockey. Girl Scouts honor! /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif</font color>

[ozchick]

Yep I've signed up too - under Ozchick... Have no idea what to do - gotta read that tutorial I guess - Damn School! I'm supposed to be on a 2 week break! /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[ILovePapaSmurf]

<font color="purple">*whispers to Oz*

Neither do I...do you think I can borrow your notes after class?</font color>

[ozchick]

sure you can borrow 'em... unfortunately the bottle of hooch I snuck into class spilled over and smudged most of it... I hope we're not tested on this stuff! /forums/images/icons/confused.gif

[Efexeye]

Ok, here's how I play-

The stocks are issued as an IPO (initial public offering) as soon as someone at HSX decides that there is a pretty good chance a movie is going to get made- there is one IPO issued every day. I usually stay away from these, however- I like to make my money in the short term.

So, let's say you buy The Simpsons stock at 12 bucks, or whatever it is right now. The stock's value will fluctuate up and down as people find out more about the movie. For example, the stock took a dive when the voice actors went on strike, as this is obviously going to hinder the movie's production. Likewise, when the studio producing the movie announces a release date, the stock will take a big upward swing because people will say "well, it's finally going to come out."

Then, the weekend the movie comes out, the stock is "halted", meaning that you can't trade it on opening wekend- I'm not sure when they do it, but it's sometime Friday evening, about 4pm EST I believe. You won't be able to buy or sell the stock until that Sunday night or the following Monday (again, read the tutorial for specifics). Then, that same Sunday or Monday, the price of the stock will adjust to (2.9 times the opening weekend box office gross). If the movie did better than anticipated, the stock will adjust "upwards"- that is to say- it will become worth more, if the movie did worse than anticipated, the stock will adjust "downwards" and be worth less than it was.

After 4 weeks, the movie will "cash out" meaning that you will get whatever it is worth on a per share basis. So you're trying to anticipate how much (or how little) money a movie will make in its first 4 weeks of release. Buying a stock means you think the movie will make more money than it's current value, shorting a stock means you think a movie will make less money than its current value.

They have StarBonds, too, which is stock in actors, producers, and directors, but I usually stay far away from these, as I don't understand how the worth is calculated. There are also "funds" managed by veteran traders- an example would be the "comic book fund", which would contain stock in every comic book movie to hit the market. The final thing you can trade are called warrants- these vary a lot, but you can gamble on who's going to win the Oscar, who's going to get kicked off next on Survivor, and the "over-under" on a movie's opening weekend take. If you think that there is no way in hell Kill Bill is going to make 30 million its first weekend, you would buy a "put" which is stock in that idea. If you think it will make more, you would buy the "call".

The best way to play (for me) is to log on on Friday afternoon and play that weekend's movies- fortunes swing a lot that way. Of course, if I read on a message board somewhere information that might give me the drop on a certain stock, I'll buy it right away.

Example: I'm holding, say, 50000 shares of Star Wars Episode 3. I read that there are production problems and that Lucas isn't happy with the way things are going (all purely hypothetical), so I decide to sell the stock. Everyone else finds out a day later, so the stock drops because everyone is selling it, but I got out while my stock was still worth something.

Hope this helps- I'd be glad to discuss what I think are good and bad buys with the folks on this board- the boards at HSX.com are terribly convoluted and badly set up.

/forums/images/icons/grin.gif

EDIT: Maybe we should do a monthly contest- whoever has the highest % gain in their portfolio for the month wins a prize. Then, the winner from the previous month could buy the prize for the winner the next month. (Nothing much here, I'd say put like a 10 dollar cap on it. The fun would be in finding a cool prize for that price. I hereby volunteer to pay for the first prize (that I don't win ;-) ) to get the ball rolling. Any takers?

[FanGirl]

Here's how I play:

I go through and find cheap stocks that are in development that I think sounds good or has good people attahced. I buy a ton of these and just wait them out. This way I check in once a week or once every couple of weeks. I get rid of the stock around the time that it starts getting advertised since when I was playing it daily I noticed that the stock takes a nose dive around the time it's about to come out because people like efexeye buy and sell around opening weekend.

It fun to get projects before they are attached to anyone for example I bought Bourne Identity before Damon was attached. I had Aviator when it was the untitled howard Hughes movie before Leonardo signed on.

I do the star bonds and I just picked people I liked and just keep them. I picked Jonathan Jackson who has done nothing, but make money for me. Jason Lee, Jack Black and Viggo Mortensen all made me money. Sadly, my Kevin Smith stock always seems to flux, but I think after Green Honet it will go sky high.

During the summer they have little bonds that you can buy guessing if a movie will make X amount of dollars over the opening weekend of not.

I play for the long term and check it less regularly. I've also made 3 million on it.

[Threadkiller]

Ugh, I gave up on star bonds. With the exception of Alfred Molina (who I picked up after learning he was going to play Doc Oc) I have never made a cent on the damn things.

I play very simply. I watch the entertainment headlines and when I see an announcement that indicates a movie is going to be either more or less successful I buy or short that stock. Some I hold long and some I dump.